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Allister Sparks on South African politics
"The Road ahead under President Zuma, is the title of my lecture, even though roads ahead are difficult to predict", said Allister Sparks, one of South Africa’s finest political analysts at a lunch lecture at NIMD on June 19th. "One of the most important questions is whether, after Mbeki failed to do so, Zuma can keep the ANC and South Africa together or whether the country will be a next Zimbabwe."
“Zuma has run a populist campaign. He has promised more jobs, more houses, more money. But contrary to what you may think, he is not the ideological socialist. He is not an ideological anything. He is a traditionalist. And because of his roots he has a natural empathy for the poor. This does not make him a communist. Besides, the left in South Africa is not per se engaged with the poor. When looking at the labour unions: their protectionism does not create openings for the many unemployed in the country.”
The discrepancy between the shortage of skills and simultaneous high unemployment rate, with a probable cause in the education sector, is going to be the focus of Sparks’ coming research and book. One of the possible solutions could be the re-introduction of apprenticeships, he proposes. Suggestions to use tax incentives or create economic zones for businesses are regarded skeptically by the unions. Question is: will Zuma go against the unions?
Sparks utters his doubts, but goes back to Zuma’s traditionalist background: “Everyone, from the labour unionists, communists to the multimillionaires, will have an input with Zuma.”, he predicts, “There will be endless discussions, leading to broadly shared conclusions. There will be no left nor right, but it will always be a compromise. That’s how he will lead the country.”
Will this be enough though? Will it not lead to talking a lot without doing much? Sparks fears that this African traditionalist way will not allow for innovative thinking, nor for creativity in leadership. “And that”, Sparks adds, “is specifically necessary in this time, when the ANC’s liberation factor is diminishing and it is becoming more of a political party. But I have a dream”, he continues with a smile, ”that South Africa will be heading towards a multiparty democracy with the ANC and styrong opposition parties. Policies and parties will be the reason to vote in the ballot, not people. Then we will have reached democratic maturity.”
“For now, Zuma’s approach, the traditionalist consensus process, will at least not lead to another Zimbabwe”, which leaves the audience reassured.
NIMD’s predecessor, NZA, has been active in South Africa since 1994, creating a special relationship with the country.
