Netherlands Institute for Multiparty Democracy

Mozambique is a postconflict country. In 1992 the disruptive and destabilising civil war between the leftist government of the Frente de Libertacão de Moçambique (FRELIMO) and the Resistencia Nacional Moçambicana (RENAMO) rebel movement ended with the signing of the Peace Agreement in Rome.

This agreement introduced multi party democracy and in 1994 the first general elections in Mozambique took place in which FRELIMO and RENAMO-UE participated. Although the results for FRELIMO and RENAMO-UE were close, the elections did not lead to a change in power. FRELIMO, that had ruled in the one party state after independence, remained the ruling party after the first elections and succeeded in strengthening its electoral position ever since.

Building democratic structures

During the 35 years in power, the party FRELIMO could expand its influence in other sections of society as well. The political elite of Mozambique is closely linked to the leaders in business, at the universities, in the judiciary and in civil society. FRELIMO is also synonymous with government. Democratic structures (like parliament) are in place, elections are organized and separation of powers exists, but the FRELIMO network is spreading over all this sectors. Consequently the main threat to the democratisation process in Mozambique is the gradual erosion of those democratic structures as they do not contribute to a society with checks and balances.

Mozambique has no culture of voice and political accountability. According to the Afrobarometer, Mozambique has a pattern of ‘uncritical citizenship’. In general, Mozambicans have a lot of trust in the political leaders and institutions, which they combine with a low commitment to democracy. Of the people interviewed in a survey (December 2007), almost 30 % admitted that they did not understand the word ‘democracy’ or could not explain what democracy mend to them. Only a small part of the population offers opinions and demands for democracy then in other African countries.

Knowledge is power

Mozambique is also a low information society. Knowledge about the political leaders, the political system and government in Mozambique is very limited. The level of formal education in Mozambique is one of the lowest in southern Africa. Only a small part of the Mozambicans has access to information from the media (newspapers, TV and radio). The lack of political information plays an important role in that.

There have been no unexpected shifts in the political power balance in Mozambique in 2008. President Guebuza has consolidated his authority in the government and in the party. He will surely be the FRELIMO presidential candidate in the general (and perhaps also provincial) elections at the end of 2009. The already dominant electoral position of the ruling party FRELIMO was further legitimized in the local election of 19 November 2008. FRELIMO succeeded in winning almost all positions of mayors. In 42 of the 43 municipalities in which elections took place a FRELIMO mayor was elected. FRELIMO also gained more seats in the municipal assemblies elected at the expense of RENAMO.

The city where FRELIMO does not have a mayor is Beira. In Beira the incumbent RENAMO mayor Daviz Simango overwhelmingly won as independent candidate after he was expelled from RENAMO. The overall turn out of 50 % which was much higher than the turn out at the local elections in 2003 is very positive as is the fact that the elections are conceived as transparent and in line with the electoral rules, also by the International Observer mission.

Frelimo supremacy

So FRELIMO’s supremacy is not challenged and this will most likely remain until 2014, when according to the constitution president Guebuza cannot stand for the third time (directly following the second term) as presidential candidate. But there are some developments that are important to mention as indicators of some new developments. Firstly, lets look at the demonstrations in the beginning of the year. People in Maputo and the Southern provinces protested against the price increases of the popular public transport (mini buses) and basic consumer goods. It was the first time that the FRELIMO government was confronted with a demonstration of this scale and persistence. This shows that people are starting to be prepared to publicly show their dissatisfaction with government.

The other event that potentially can challenge FRELIMO is the possibility of the formation of a third political force with the working name Mozambican Democratic Movement. Internal dissatisfaction with the leadership and with the results of RENAMO is growing. There are (young) politicians from RENAMO including prominent Members of Parliament and the expelled Daviz Simango, looking at the possibility to start a new democratic party. However this group has to get their act together very quickly to have impact at the elections at the end of 2009. There have been splits from RENAMO before like the PPD of Raul Domingo, but he could not create the necessary countervailing political power.

Renamo's future

The future of RENAMO doesn’t look bright. The general economic improvements in the rural areas are not favourable to the opposition as is the existing influence of FRELIMO in all sectors of society. The weak performance of RENAMO is also to blame on the party itself as the local elections show.

Firstly the party organised a controversial internal process of selecting candidates. The candidate selection of the mayor of Beira, in which party leader Dhlakama did not nominate the very popular incumbent RENAMO mayor Daviz Simango was the most extreme example of miscalculation of the top levels of RENAMO.

And secondly the advantage of RENAMO in some municipalities was taken for granted and therefore campaigning too limited. After the elections, the position of Dhlakama is more than ever at risk. This has been clearly shown by a very public disagreement between the chief whip of RENAMO Maria Moreno and party leader Dhlakama. Polarization in the political system has not decreased. There are no incentives for FRELIMO to enter into a real dialogue with RENAMO as RENAMO’s electoral position becomes weaker. FRELIMO will more vigilantly follow the developments within the new Mozambican Democratic Movement.

Parties in coalition

The performance of the small extra parliamentary parties was disappointing. The two most active parties Partido para a Paz, Democracia e Desenvolvimento (PDD) and the Independent Party of Mozambique (PIMO) each won 1 seat in Beira. Some locally based parties also won some seats in other municipalities.

The results of the coalition in the network for extra parliamentary parties, initiated by NIMD the Centro de Promoção de Democracia Multipartidara Moçambique (CPDM-M), were very limited. The National Democratic Alliance (AND) which was a coalition of four parties in CPDM, participated with a mayoral candidate and council candidates for two cities, but did not succeed in attracting enough votes. The lacks of results of the smaller parties at local level indicate that they will not play any role in the coming national elections despite the abolishment of the 5 % threshold.