Netherlands Institute for Multiparty Democracy

With the peaceful re-election of a sitting president only recently concluded and evidence of a culture of political stability emerging, Indonesia had been gaining a remarkable reputation for good democracy in South East Asia. The political system had been in transition, and the atmosphere around Jakarta generally positive. But then came the spoiler: the suicide bomb attacks at the JW Marriott and the Ritz-Carlton, which killed eight people and wounded at least 50 this past July 17.

The implications of the attacks thus far seem to be relatively limited. The city's stock exchange is unaffected by the hit and Indonesians seem to have gone back to business as usual. However, the attacks have harmed Indonesia’s image and dampened foreign investors confidence in the economy.

Increasing stability

Increased law and order had been one of the factors accounting for president Yudhoyono’s popularity. Terrorist attacks, a common feature of Indonesian life between 2000 and 2005, ceased in recent years under Yudhoyono’s tenure. Yudhoyono (or SBY) also brokered peace with Aceh in 2004, and in the other regions violent inter-ethnic clashes - previously all too commonplace, under SBY had seemed to subside. This image of stability is crushed by the recent attacks in Jakarta.  SBY’s steady course on the economy is also of relevance. The growth rate could still be negatively affected by the Jakarta blasts. Terrorism, especially if other attacks were to happen, could scare off foreign investment and possibly tourists.

All in all, it's not hard to conclude that SBY has plenty of challenges to face right after his inauguration, especially since more attacks cannot be ruled out. Although the terrorist group Jema'ah Islamiya as an organisation might be much less powerful than before 2005, new split off splinter groups formed by, amongst others, recently released prisoners, could very possibly plan more attacks. Smaller than the Bali bombings, because the groups have less resources, yet with small devices more harm can still be done.

Security and economy

Thus far SBY has managed the attacks and its aftermath well. The forceful condemnation of the attacks and strong intention to invigorate the pursuit of Noordin Top bode well in this regard. Yet it is important to note that much is indeed dependent on the way the terrorist issue is addressed and resolved by SBY. Stability, security and the economy are all underlying factors that partially explain SBY’s popularity.

Yet, moreover, these issues also tie in to Indonesia’s democracy. It was a very good sign that for the first time since Reformasi a president was re-elected in Indonesia, which is a sign of further consolidation of the Indonesian democracy. But this very fact also had to do with this stability, economic progress and an agenda of corruption eradication. Further security threats will not directly harm further democratic consolidation, but they can disturb this process.

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