Netherlands Institute for Multiparty Democracy

Background

On July 20, 2010, shortly after two month-long opposition protest rallies were suspended, President Mikheil Saakashvili addressed Georgia's parliament and pledged more democratic reforms in the country. "In recent months the opposition has had an opportunity to express its protest without any obstacles," the President said in his speech.

He went on to argue that now is the time to move the political processes from the streets to the Parliament. "One concrete proposal is to elect Tbilisi's Mayor directly; let's hold local elections on 30 May 2010 instead of in autumn 2010 [as originally planned]," he said.

Tbilisi’s Mayor is now elected through universal, equal and direct suffrage for a four year term. Candidates wishing to stand for the position should be Georgian citizens with the right to participate in elections, who are above the age of 25, and have lived in Georgia for at least 5 years. In addition, candidates must have a thorough knowledge of the Georgian language.

Registered parties and blocs must nominate their candidates for Mayor at least thirty days before the election is held. Radical opposition parties that had boycotted the May 2008 parliamentary election results, as well as relatively new political movements (for example, Irakli Alasania’s Alliance for Georgia) therefore had a chance to prove their political credibility.

Despite many attempts, opposition parties could not reach agreement over the common mayoral candidate. As a result, 8 candidates nominated by different political parties and movements were registered by the CEC. Furthermore, a number of opposition parties refused to take part in elections and nominate candidates.

Initial results and exit polls

Several exit polls predicted a victory for the incumbent Mayor, Giorgi Ugulava of the ruling United National Movement (UNM). The Edison Research poll estimated that 60% of voters had voted for Ugulava, while another poll gave him just under 55%.

Amongst international monitors, the International Society for Fair Elections and Democracy (ISFED) published results from its quantitative monitoring on May 31 suggesting that Ugulava had garnered 54.3%, followed by Alasania on 13.2% and Giorgi Chanturia (Christian-Democratic Union) with 10.9% of votes.

However Civil Monitoring carried out polls at 100 precincts, surveying 14,300 voters. The esults significantly different from other exit polls, with Alsania gaining over 37% of votes and Ugulava garnering just 32%. However, Civil Monitoring confirmed there was a high (38%) rate of no response to its surveys.

Reactions from the candidates

Referring to the Edison poll, Gogi Topadze (Leader of the Topadze-Industrialists) considered it impossible that 60% of the population supported Ugulava and the UNM. “During the election campaign, we met people from different districts and backgrounds, we couldn’t find anyone content with the work of the ruling party and mayor, I wonder who is counted in this 60%,” Topadze told the InterPress News. Similarly, Nika Ivanishvili (Public Democrats) assessed the elections negatively, referring to a range of irregularities.

Alasania said that only an official vote tabulation could give a real picture. “[The] following hours [will be] decisive in finding out what was the choice made by the Tbilisi voters. Only afterwards it will be possible to assess the elections,” he said.

By contrast Chanturia congratulated Ugulava on his victory. “We should all acknowledge that these [elections] were [a] success for Georgia, because it was a step forward towards development of democracy,” he told the Georgian Public Broadcaster.

After casting his ballot, President Saakashvili said that he was confident his ruling UNM would win and that incumbent mayor Gigi Ugulava would be re-elected. For his part, Ugulava said that he was ready to cooperate with the other political parties.

Official results

Across Georgia, 1,740,642 voters cast their ballot in the May 30 local elections, making the voter turnout 49%, according to the Central Election Commission (CEC). In Tbilisi 457,851 voters, or 46.64% of the capital city’s registered voters, turned out at polling stations.

In the end, Ugulava comfortably achieved re-election, according to results released by Central Election Commission (CEC) on 2 June. Ugulava, with 55.23%, was followed by Alasania with 19.05%.

Meanwhile, the ruling UNM will have 39 seats in new 50-member Tbilisi City Council with the remaining 11 seats distributed among four other parties. The ruling party is also heading to winning a majority of seats in 63 councils across the country.

Implications for the 2012 parliamentary and presidential elections

Alasania told his party activists that the elections were valid and the new target now should be 2012 parliamentary elections. “Despite significant shortcomings, which we have observed, the elections were valid; Tbilisi has made its choice,” he said.

Targamadze stated that his party has now established itself as a political party and a political team. Meanwhile Nika Ivanishvili, who failed to overcome the election threshold in the mayoral elections held on May 30, intends to cooperate with all political parties who won seats in the Tbilisi Sakrebulo (City Council).

The opposition party National Forum plans to begin consultations with other opposition parties in order to create a joint opposition front, Kakha Shartava. The National Council does not recognise the results of the elections and plans to keep on fighting for replacing this government via elections.

President Saakashvili ruled out early elections. "We are not the government of elections and pre-election campaign; we are the government of construction and development. The next elections won’t take place at least in the timeline of the next 2 years. However, it depends on the new constitution and its formulation," Saakashvili said.

Reactions of Local and International Observers

Tbilisi-based election watchdog group the International Society for Fair Elections and Democracy (ISFED), said that the election administration and the government had demonstrated the “will to conduct fair elections, during both the pre-election period and on election day.

“However, [a] number of tendencies observed on the election day cast a shadow on [this] positive assessment,” the group said, noting “wide-scale agitation by activists of electoral subjects in areas surrounding polling stations.”

The International Election Observation Mission (IEOM) - led by the Organizaqtion for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and its Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) - said in its preliminary report that the elections “marked evident progress” towards meeting international standards, but that “significant shortcomings” remain.

Asked whether these elections were free and fair, Ambassador Audrey Glover, Head of ODIHR's the observation mission, said that the OSCE no longer used “free and fair” while describing elections, as such a description was not precise and did not help countries in knowing how to improve elections in the future. Rather, it assesses elections against the commitments of OSCE and the Council of Europe and also national legislation, she said.

"These elections were marked by clear improvements and efforts by the authorities to address problems occurring during the process. It is now time to fix the remaining shortcomings and take effective steps to prevent electoral malpractices before the next elections at the national level," Ambassador Glover said.

Sources: CEC official results, civil.ge, OSCE led IEOM report, IPN, Rustavi2 news.

Read about NIMD’s Georgia programme.