Netherlands Institute for Multiparty Democracy

The international community has been repeatedly accused of intervening in the internal affairs of the country and officially warned with retaliation. Daniel Ortega’s government is under increasing pressure; the economy is doing relatively well but performs worse compared to the region’s average. Also, the inflation rate is double the one in the region and the annual state budget shows a surplus only because of under-execution and under-expenditure.

Ortega’s government is loosing support among the population and since last week he is (again) personally being accused in the media concerning a still pending court case against him that involves the sexual abuse of his wife’s daughter, in the 80s. Nonetheless polls indicate that Ortega still counts on a ‘stable’ support base of 29 percent and will not give up.


Banned parties

One of the most polemic and by the international community criticized issues this year is the decision by the Supreme Electoral Court (SEC) to lift the legal status of two political parties, the centre-left MRS and the right-wing PC (Conservative Party). The SEC, as other State institutions in Nicaragua, is in hands of the Ortega’s FSLN and the PLC (Constitutionalist Liberal Party). They are political enemies from the past but nowadays partners in political compromises.

The decision against the MRS is perceived as reflecting the FSLN’ s interest to prevent the MRS participation in the municipal elections in November 2008. The MRS, which in 2006 was able to campaign in only 27 of the 153 municipalities, was now preparing to campaign in 141 municipalities.


Democracy vs authoritarianism

The official MRS (Movement for the Sandinista Reform), represents political actors that besides wanting to reform the Sandinista movement, above all perceive the political divide in the country as one between democracy and authoritarianism. Hence the positioning of the official MRS to work together with the centre-right movement of former PLC-politicians in an alliance against the two dominant parties FSLN and PLC. However in the general perception, the divide is still between Sandinista and anti-Sandinistas, between left and right.

Although the MRS would not be able to win in any one of the municipalities, polls indicate that they could cause the FSLN electoral defeat in around 27 important municipalities. Moreover, the MRS would have had the opportunity to show its capacity to operate nation wide and therefore to be a serious political competitor in the 2011 elections.

The decision to lift its legal status, taken by the electoral authorities, is now in the hands of the Supreme Court. There is a small chance that the decision will be revoked shortly before the official start of the campaign, 18 September, and the MRS legalized again, as well as the PC. That would officially permit both parties to campaign but with the elections one and a half month ahead, they would not be able to organize an effective campaign on such a short notice.

If on the other hand the Court maintains the banning of the two parties Nicaragua’s relationship with the international community will furthermore deteriorate, and especially with the budget-support group of which the Netherlands is an active stakeholder.