Netherlands Institute for Multiparty Democracy

The moves follow the September 28 referendum, in which voters approved President Correa's proposed constitution by 63 percent to 29 percent. The constitution is a centerpiece in the president's political reform project and its ratification, Correa's third electoral win since 2006, gives his Alliance País movement a powerful hold on the country's political future.

Yet, with elections for the next assembly set for early 2009, oppositional political forces are gearing up for a fully fledged contest.

Transition period

Even though the new Constitution was approved by a significant majority throughout Ecuador, there were two important parts of the country where no clear winner emerged. In Guayaquil, Ecuador’s most populous city and a Correa stronghold, approval for the constitution lost the vote by 1.3%. Yet, in Guayas, where Guayaquil is located, 50% voted in favor of the charter. The other undecided region is the Napo province, a supporter base for former President Lucio Gutiérrez, where the “Si” or “Yes” vote lost by 16.64%. The province represents 0.62% of the electorate.

Rafael Correa is currently enjoying a lot of popularity in Ecuador. Despite an intense campaign run against him by various opposition groups - including principal media outlets and sectors of the main Churches -- both the President's political plans and personal performance still draw wide support.

Legitimacy issues

International observers have endorsed the legitimacy of the referendum, but the head of the European Union’s mission reported abuses of public funds that could have favored the vote for the Constitution. Speaking about this he said: “The failure to enforce the prohibition of publicity in public activities or governmental projects during the campaign, as well as the use of public funds during that time favored the ‘YES’” vote. The prospect of similar abuses cannot be ruled out for the next elections in 2009.

Yet, the approval of the new Constitution, Ecuador’s 20th, was the result of the most inclusive and participatory political process in the history of the country with more than 100 thousand citizens visiting the NSC this year to with it’s members and commissioners over what to put in the new political charter. Now that it is approved, this citizen's dialogue will be institutionalized with the establishment of citizens participation and social accountability councils. A complex set of procedures are involved in setting up the councils but they are perhaps the most innovative feature of Ecudor's new democracy.

Transition's tasks

A series of tasks to advance the implementation of the Constitution have been defined for this transition period:

1. Conclude the term of Constituent Assembly members and their substitutes on Oct. 15, 2008;
2. The Constituent Assembly forms the Legislative Commission (transitional legislative), and members of the National Electoral Council and Electoral Disputes Tribunal are appointed;
3. This Commission fulfills the functions of the National Assembly1 according to the Constitution, until the new National Congress members are named and take office;
4. This same Commission must also pass the following laws within 180 days:
* Food Sovereignty Law
* Elections Law
* Judicial Functions Law
* Judiciary Council Law
* Mining Law
* Legislative Functions Law

e) The establishment of the above mentioned councils.

Political parties and movements have been given 45 days to register for the next general elections.2

Towards the next elections

The referendum resulted in a further consolidation of the governmental coalition of forces united in the Acuerdo País. This was partly due to the strong leadership by Rafael Correa and his team, partly to the inability of the opposition to find a national leader to rival him. This situation is expected to continue in the next year. There are four reasons for this:

1. President Correa's leadership has been unequivocally strengthened by the referendum result;

2. Opposition leaders like Guayaquil’s Mayor Jaime Nebot, have remained just local or canton-based leaders3. However, a cooling in the relations between Guayaquil (and Mayor Nebot) and the central government cannot be ruled out. Jaime Nebot’s discourse says that while the approval of the charter must be respected in the whole country, the vote against it in Guayaquil must also be respected. Others say that this idea goes against the content of the new Constitution.

3. The opposition lacks any substantial policy-agenda as an alternative to the one successfully presented by the government. What is most probable is that in the short-term, the opposition will focus on questioning the so-called transition period from a legal perspective. The transitional regime is extremely complex and has only a short time to create a series of laws and structures. That opens the door for the opposition to question the legality (and constitutionality) of some of the laws that the Legislative Commission must write and approve.

4. In this context, the most probable outcome is that Ecuador will have a political period defined by stability and without major social conflict (but with legal disputes). This is expected to benefit Rafael Correa if he is a candidate in the next elections, which are scheduled for late February or early March.