Netherlands Institute for Multiparty Democracy

The results show, however, that the country stays politically divided. The first results indicate that the “yes” gained in the provinces of La Paz, Oruro, Potosi and Cochabamba, and the “no” got majority in the eastern provinces of Santa Cruz, Tarija, Beni, Pando, the so-called Media Luna.

Political Polarization

The constitutional text that was presented to the population for approval, has been object of negotiations between President Evo Morales and his party, the MAS – Movimiento al Socialismo and the opposition, which is strong in the relatively wealthy eastern provinces of the country. In October 2008, after months of political confrontation between the MAS and the opposition in relation to the new project of Constitution, an agreement between both sides was achieved. The negotiations that allowed that the “impasse” was overcome counted with the support of the international community (UNASUR). On the other hand, the major factor of success of the negotiations was the political articulation between moderate members of the the MAS and the opposition. The FUBODEM – Fundación Boliviana para la Democracia Multipartidária, partner organization of NIMD in Bolivia, played a relevant role in the achievement of an agreement regarding the new Constitution.

The Constitution foresees that general elections will take place in December 2009, with a new Congress and president starting their mandates at the beginning of 2010. If President Morales is re-elected, the next term will be his last one, being this decision one of the results of the negotiations with the opposition. Considering that 2009 is again an electoral year, the possibility exists that, within the political dispute, confrontation again gains space in the political arena. In this context, the demonstrated capacity of FUBODEM in articulating the several political forces around in-depth dialogue will probably be decisive for the implementation of the new Constitution.

Important issues in the new Constitution are related to:

a) Departmental Autonomy: more decentralization will take place in order to cope with the demands of the Media Luna;

b) State Control: increased state control on the exploitation of the natural resources;

c) Justice: traditional forms of Justice are recognized in areas governed by indigenous peoples;

d) Indigenous rights: political rights of indigenous people have been enhanced.

Although, at the national level, the Referendum was more favorable to the government (60%), it is clear that there is still a great level of political and social division in Bolivia. In this context, it would not be positive if the hard political sectors of the Media Luna make use of the fact that, in that region the “no” got the majority in the Constitutional Referendum, to increase political polarization through disrespect to the Constitution. On the other hand, if the government does not recognize the contribution of the productive component of the Media Luna and its urban middle class, space will be open to new conflicts and confrontation. A simplistic analysis based on the numeric results of the Referendum is therefore not recommended.

More moderate voices

The new Constitution settles a long-term base so that several groups of the population have enough space for the manifestation of political projects which reflect their divergent interests. From the point of view of NIMD and of FUBODEM – Fundación Boliviana para la Democracia Multipartidária, the approval of the Constitution and its implementation, albeit in a society fiercly divided along opposing political perspectives, does create possibilities for the articulation of more moderate positions of both the government and opposition which, in the process, can only strengthen Boilvian democracy.

More Info

Visit our Bolivia page for background information and more analysis of the process that resulted in the new constitutional text.