Netherlands Institute for Multiparty Democracy

This can be concluded from the provisional result released by the National Electoral Council Sunday evening. With this result, Correa strikes a big gap between him and his main opponent, former colonel Lucio Gutiérrez, who won only 28% of the votes. A second round is probably not necessary.

For years, Ecuador has been one of the most politically instable countries of Latin America. Many presidential terms have been interrupted by military coups, revolts and rulings of the Supreme Court. However, since 2007, the first year of Rafael Correa’s term, the country is enjoying a degree of political stability. The interim election was required because Ecuador adopted a new Constitution last year. In 2006, Correa was elected as President with a strong reform agenda.

New constitution

Constitutional reform was one of his priorities. A Constitutional Assembly was installed, in which Correa and his movements won the majority of seats. The powers of Congress were reduced drastically while those of the President increased. Additionally, the state acquired a larger role in the national economy.

In September 2008, the new Constitution was approved by a majority of around 66% and it was already expected that Correa’s popularity would bring him a convincing victory in the Presidential Elections. Correa’s second term will last until 2013, after which he might be re-elected again, resulting in a possible third term until 2017.

No opposition

Since the victory of Correa in 2006, the traditional political parties have almost disappeared from the political scene. Except from the media, Correa has hardly faced any opposition in this years’ elections. Correa’s three main opponents were Álvaro Noboa, one of the richest persons in Ecuador who has been trying to become president ever since the early nineties, ex-colonel and former president (2003-2005) Lucio Gutiérrez, and Martha Roldós of the left opposition party RED. Together, those three candidates received around 40% of the votes.

A by far greater potential threat to Correa’s popularity is the economic crisis. After the financial crisis in 2000, Ecuador introduced the US dollar as the national currency. Consequently the country has become rather dependent on foreign currency. Due to the current crisis, Ecuador is facing difficulties accessing international financial markets. Moreover, income from the crucial oil sector is dwindling as are the remittances from America and Spain. However, so far no opposition has proven to be strong enough to challenge Correa’s new policies.

'Code of Democracy'

During the Constitutional Assembly, NIMD’s partner Ágora Democrática (NIMD-IDEA) supported several technical commissions of the Assembly dealing with three main themes; gender inclusion, media policy and political reform. During the transition period between the Constitutional Assembly and the elections in April, Ágora - in cooperation with the National Electoral Council, the Electoral Court, the Ministry of Justice, Planning and Development, the acting Parliament, and the legislative commission of the former Constitutional Assembly – has drafted a proposal for the new Electoral Law and the Law on Political Parties, together called the “Code of Democracy”. After the government partially amended the laws, the legislative commission eventually approved the law on February 12, 2009. The “Code of Democracy” will come into force after the presidential elections of April 26th.